Demographics
With approximately 1.1 million housing units, 3.1 people and 1.5 million jobs, San Diego County continues to grow. As we continue into 2009, housing prices, job growth and the economy will play an important role in the demographic changes in San Diego County’s future.
The U.S. Census and the California Department of Finance (CA DOF) are the two sources for population data for California. But the agencies tell two completely different stories. According to the U.S. Census, San Diego County experienced a population increase of 13,407 persons between July 2007 and July 2008. However, the CA DOF demonstrates a population increase of 19,085 for the same period. For both net domestic migration and net foreign migration, the U.S. Census numbers are much lower (by approximately 2,500 to 3,000) in both categories.
On the other hand, when the same two sources depict estimated births and deaths for San Diego County the numbers are relatively close. According to the U.S. Census, San Diego experienced 47,565 births and 19,962 deaths between July 2007 and July 2008. According to the CA DOF, San Diego experienced approximately 47,609 births and 20,060 deaths for the same period.
U.S. Census estimates are just that. They are estimates. The Census looks for trends based on their long form survey that is sent to and filled out by 1 in 6 persons. So in essence, the population trend of migration is based on a sample of only 17% of the population.
Now the U.S. Census tries to add a layer by incorporating IRS data to track individuals. However, this data has proven to be unreliable because there is no way to track the previous locations of first time filers or those who elected not to file the year before (do people just show up missing?). In addition, this data is tabulated only once per year.
So how does the CA DOF compare? They use IRS data as well, but also incorporate two factors that enable them to “count” the population: DMV licenses and change of addresses. These two data points are tracked monthly and are reported per individual. It is not merely a sample that is applied to the total population.
The bottom line is that the CA DOF data, because of its ability to “count” the population. Even the U.S. Census has agreed that this method is more reliable (albeit they don’t have the resources to conduct such a counting effort).
It is incorrect to state that there is an exodus. It’s more of a makeover if anything. San Diego is undergoing an economic and demographic shift in its quest to becoming more interdependent across county and state lines. Our employment base is diversifying towards a higher-skilled labor force, just as we experienced in the early 1990s when the defense industry downsized. On a larger scale, the coastal communities of Southern California are reaching out to inland markets to provide the industrial and manufacturing bases.
County and State lines are just mental boundaries. We need to think bigger and identify synergies throughout a larger region. It’s important to recognize this, and to keep perspective. Perspective is when all things are considered.